A Diplomatic Dance in a Shifting World

As the global geopolitical chessboard tilts, Russia is playing a bold hand, celebrating a warming bond between India and China while cementing its role as India’s top oil supplier. On August 20, 2025, Russian diplomats in New Delhi hailed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to India as a “very successful” step toward mending ties strained since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. With Russia supplying over 40% of India’s crude oil despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s punitive 50% tariffs, Moscow is doubling down on its strategic partnership with New Delhi, proposing trilateral India-China-Russia talks to counter Western pressure. This unfolding saga, set against a backdrop of trade wars and diplomatic pivots, reveals India’s deft balancing act and Russia’s unwavering support, promising to reshape Asia’s power dynamics. Here’s the full story for www.masalamirror.com.

Wang Yi’s Visit: A Thaw in India-China Relations

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to New Delhi on August 18–19, 2025, marked a pivotal moment in India-China relations, the first such high-level trip in three years. Meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Wang Yi delivered an invitation from President Xi Jinping for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on August 31–September 1, Modi’s first China visit in seven years. The agenda focused on de-escalating tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with talks under the Special Representatives mechanism aiming to reduce troops at the disputed Himalayan border. Jaishankar emphasized moving beyond “differences” to build a “stable, cooperative” relationship, while Wang urged both nations to view each other as “partners, not opponents,” amid “unilateral bullying” in global trade— a veiled jab at U.S. policies.

This diplomatic outreach follows a turbulent period. The 2020 Galwan clash, which killed 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers, froze bilateral ties, halting direct flights and stalling trade. Yet, recent moves signal a thaw: China eased restrictions on urea exports to India, potentially supplying 300,000 tonnes, and both nations plan to resume direct flights in September 2025 after a five-year hiatus. These steps, catalyzed by U.S. tariffs, reflect a mutual recognition of the “high political, economic, and military cost” of strained relations, as noted by analyst Ivan Lidarev.

Russia’s Warm Embrace

Russia’s enthusiasm for this rapprochement is no surprise. At a press briefing on August 20, Roman Babushkin, Chargé d’Affaires at the Russian Embassy in New Delhi, called Wang Yi’s visit a triumph, advocating for stronger BRICS and SCO ties. “We welcome the very successful visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi,” he said, framing it as a step toward regional stability. Russia, a key player in both organizations, sees India and China as vital counterweights to Western influence. Babushkin also highlighted Russia’s robust energy trade with India, supplying over 40% of its crude oil—about 1.75 million barrels per day in 2025—despite U.S. tariffs. He credited a “very special mechanism” for bypassing sanctions, including accepting Indian rupee payments after resolving banking issues that trapped billions.

Russia’s support extends beyond oil. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov signaled potential exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and expanded nuclear energy cooperation, while Babushkin emphasized Russia’s role in India’s defense sector, including the S-400 air defense system and the Sudarshan Chakra missile defense project. These ties, rooted in a “strategic partnership,” remain unshaken by U.S. pressure, with Russia offering 5–7% discounts on oil to Indian buyers, making it “very profitable,” as Deputy Trade Commissioner Evgeny Griva noted.

The U.S. Tariff Tangle

The backdrop to this diplomatic flurry is U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy. On August 6, 2025, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian exports, raising the total to 50%, as punishment for India’s continued Russian oil purchases, which he claims fund Russia’s “war machine” in Ukraine. White House officials like Peter Navarro and Stephen Miller accused India of “profiteering” by refining Russian crude into diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline for global export, boosting profits for refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on August 19 that India’s “huge profits” justified the tariffs, while China, the largest buyer of Russian oil (109 million tonnes in 2024 vs. India’s 88 million), faced no such penalties, sparking accusations of double standards.

India has pushed back fiercely. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal called the tariffs “unjustified and unreasonable,” noting that the U.S. initially encouraged India to buy Russian oil to stabilize global markets after the Ukraine war began in 2022. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri emphasized India’s diversified oil suppliers—now spanning 40 countries—while analysts like Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative argued that India’s purchases prevented a global oil price shock. Despite Trump’s claim on August 2 that India might halt Russian oil imports, government sources confirmed no policy change, citing long-term contracts and economic necessity. Posts on X echoed this sentiment, with @vikramchandra questioning why China escapes tariffs while India faces a 50% levy, and @MarioNawfal noting the U.S. initially urged India to buy Russian crude.

India’s Strategic Pivot

India’s response reflects its hallmark “strategic autonomy.” On August 15, Modi’s Independence Day speech vowed to protect Indian farmers from U.S. tariff threats, signaling defiance. His planned China visit and Jaishankar’s Moscow trip on August 20–21 to co-chair the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission underscore India’s outreach to BRICS partners. Russia’s backing is unequivocal, with Babushkin dismissing U.S. tariffs as “illegal” and predicting that India-Russia trade will endure in their “national interests.” Moscow’s push for trilateral talks with India and China aims to bolster this axis, leveraging BRICS and SCO platforms to counter Western sanctions.

The tariffs, effective August 27, 2025, threaten 55% of India’s U.S. exports—textiles, gems, auto parts, and seafood—potentially slashing exports by 40–50%, per the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. Yet, India’s temporary suspension of an 11% cotton import duty until September 30 signals a conciliatory gesture toward Washington. Meanwhile, China’s urea export easing and resumed flights suggest a strategic alignment with India, as both nations navigate Trump’s protectionism.

A Delicate Balancing Act

India’s oil trade with Russia, which surged from 0.2% of its energy mix in 2021 to 35–40% in 2024, has been a lifeline for its economy, keeping inflation in check and boosting refiner profits. However, recent reports indicate state-owned refiners like Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum paused Russian oil purchases after July discounts narrowed to their lowest since 2022. Russia, undeterred, is redirecting some Urals crude to China at a $1 per barrel discount, highlighting its adaptability.

The U.S.’s selective tariff strategy—sparing China while targeting India—stems from economic and political calculations. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that sanctioning Chinese refiners could spike global oil prices, a risk Washington avoids as it negotiates trade with Beijing. India, however, faces the full 50% levy, prompting analysts like Dhruva Jaishankar to warn of a fraying U.S.-India partnership. Yet, India’s diversified defense procurement—down to 36% from Russia in 2020–24—and growing ties with France, Israel, and the U.S. show its pragmatic approach.

A New Asian Power Dynamic

Russia’s praise for India-China ties and its steadfast oil supply signal a broader vision: a multipolar world where BRICS nations challenge Western dominance. Modi’s upcoming SCO Summit meeting with Xi Jinping and Putin’s planned India visit by year-end underscore this shift. As @Prune602 noted on X, Russia’s $5 per barrel discount offer reflects Putin’s commitment to India’s energy needs. For India, balancing Russia’s support, China’s overtures, and U.S. pressure is a high-stakes game, but one it’s played masterfully for decades.

This saga is far from over. As India navigates tariffs and strengthens BRICS ties, its strategic autonomy remains its greatest asset. Russia’s backing and China’s olive branch offer New Delhi leverage in a turbulent world, ensuring its voice resonates from Moscow to Beijing—and beyond.

For the latest on India’s global diplomacy and energy trade, visit www.bharattone.com.

Keywords: India-China relations, Wang Yi India visit, Russia-India oil trade, U.S. tariffs India, BRICS cooperation, SCO Summit 2025, Narendra Modi China visit, strategic autonomy, Russian crude oil discounts, India-Russia strategic partnership.